Description
The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) has consolidated the advances made in independently prepared investment projects from Member Countries into a single, viable Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Program (NEL-IP). Not only does this plan provide a framework for shared water resources, but also a suite of well-structured, -designed, purposeful, integrated and bankable projects for development partners and investors to consider. The NEL-IP is a summation of well-considered Priority Investment Projects that are cognizant of and address as far as possible, the NEL-IP objectives, NEL member country needs and sector plans. The NEL-IP shows the relative plausibility and bankability of individual projects with the following outcomes:
Screening of projects and technical analysis using accepted criteria - Fifteen regional screening criteria (with weightings) were developed and reviewed with member countries. With the support of a decision support tool that was developed specifically for the NEL-IP, these criteria have been applied to the long list of 128 projects to determine a relative priority for each project.
In country consultation process – Member countries were visited to explain the project selection process, technical analysis, and rigorously review the preliminary ranking of prioritized projects for completeness, alignment with member country needs and sector priorities. During the consultations, follow up discussions and review process, 7 projects were removed from NEL-IP, mostly because they had successfully procured funding for implementation or their priority had diminished, and 3 projects were added, with the long list now totaling 124 projects with individual priorities.
Consideration of scenarios - Additionally, projects were allocated to one of several scenarios that best described the sector that they were mostly in. By totaling individual project priorities within each scenario, the “Food Security” scenario with its 16 projects had the highest total priority, and was very well balanced in terms of country representation, and therefore became the favored basket of projects for this phase of the NEL-IP.
Refinement of prioritized projects – An attempt was made to further refine the prioritized projects to include sectors that were slightly under-represented by considering the priority scores of all the individual projects, however this approach would upset the country balance of 3 projects per country, and risk excluding higher prioritized projects in lieu of those with a lower score. Consequently, it was decided to use the relative weightings of the two criteria, viz. country (1.0) and sector (0.5) representation as the over-riding factor. Food security scenario with its 16 well balanced country representation of each country being represented 3 times is selected as the scenario for further consideration for this phase of the NEL-IP. The remaining 108 projects will be promoted for future phases of the NEL-IP.
Project profiles – All available information for the 16 selected projects has been assimilated, reviewed and included in a project profile that focusses on NEL-IP needs, and also largely satisfies the requirements of potential future development partners.
Investment Plan – Describes each of the 16 projects in enough detail to enable potential investors and financiers to assess their bankability. This includes a financing plan, a performance management framework, a programme implementation plan and a draft capacity building framework.
Implementation - The estimated overall implementation schedule of the projects is 13 years from approval of funding.
Capacity Building – Capacity building is a critical foundation to the successful implementation of the NEL-IP. A framework for the implementation of a capacity building program over 5 years at a cost of USD 19.8m has been developed.
Financing the NEL-IP - It is estimated that a total of 3,076 billion USD will be required to implement all 16 projects, and 24 millions USD for the studies that are still required. If the projects for which only high-level implementation estimates are available are excluded from this phase of the NEL-IP, then the total funding required is 1,735 billion USD. For establishment of the NEL-IP, the cost for minimal functionality, to establish the NEL-IP and to prepare studies for the known projects is 6.6 million, 79.1 million and 26.0 million USD respectively, over the 13-year implementation period. The funding gap for projects and NEL-IP establishment is currently 100%.
Recommendations - The NEL-IP is a Program of well-considered, viable and plausible projects for implementation. NELCOM endorsed the NEL-IP proposal, and that the immediate next step of pursuing potential development partners has been initiated.
Background
The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) is consolidating the advances made in independently prepared investment projects from Member Countries into a single, viable Nile Equatorial Lakes Investment Programme (NEL-IP). A grand total of 128 projects have been identified and prepared at different levels of detail. The challenge is that there is a large number of projects to pursue and manage concurrently. Consequently, the NEL-IP streamlines and organizes bankable projects into a manageable Program that is purposefully focused on key priorities of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), NELSAP, Member Countries and potential development partners.
The Proposal first summarizes the technical process of prioritizing 16 projects into an Investment Plan based on carefully considered selection criteria to ensure that their status and potential bankability is transparent. Potential investors are able to have meaningful discussions, assessment and selection of projects for investment. Inter alia, investors need to be able to assess projects based on their plausibility, economic, social and financial capacity. The process includes a consultation process to primarily to ensure that Member Country needs, investment sector plans and priorities are included in the Investment Plan.
The Implementation Plan shows project and institutional requirements to implement the NEL-IP including the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders at all regional and national levels.
Other than funding for project implementation, potentially the most budget needy aspect of the NEL-IP is that of Capacity Building. Local communities, government departments, regional institutions and the NBI/NELSAP must have sufficient institutional capacity including skills to undertake the roles that will be assigned to them under the NEL-IP program. This section details a framework for the implementation of capacity building as a key aspect of the NEL-IP.
Lastly, the Financing Plan details the costs that are needed to enhance each of the selected projects to their next level of development including feasibility studies and, in many instances, implementation. The Financing Plan also details the funding required to implement the NEL-IP over the 13-years needed to implement the selected projects and provides a framework to engage potential development partners.
Expected Results
Ethiopia - Sudan (TL)
Although it is suspected that a feasibility study may have been done for this project, no further information was available at the time of writing this report.
This project will require some preliminary studies to define its composition, for which funding is being sought under this phase of the NEL-IP
Dedesa-Tepi-Juba (TL)
The Dedesa-Tepi-Juba project is a 700km 400KV/500HVDC transmission line from Ethiopia to South Sudan. It is anticipated that with a connection between Ethiopia, South Sudan, and on to Uganda, ultimately 5 or more countries could be supplied with electricity. This project is at identification stage, no studies have been done (confirmed with South Sudan Energy Director General). The project is a high national priority for South Sudan. The project has been identified by the countries in their development plans as well as NELSAP through the Hydropower Expansion Plan and Regional Integration Plan of South Sudan into Regional Grid (2015).
For this phase of NEL-IP, the project requires feasibility studies to determine its feasibility, for which funding is sought in the NEL-IP. Detailed design, ESIA & RAP, tender documents and construction could potentially follow in future phases if the project is feasible.
Kisumu/Kilgoris-Mwanza (TL)
This project is a 400kV transmission line from Kenya to Tanzania, estimated to cost USD281m. Feasibility studies and detailed design are currently underway and will assist in defining the design and cost estimate of implementation for which funding is sought in the NEL-IP.
Uganda -D.R. Congo (TL)
This proposed transmission line from Nkenda in Uganda to Beni-Butembo-Bunia (DR Congo) will allow the supply of the north east of the DR Congo, particularly the towns of Beni, Bunia and Butembo with electricity from Uganda through 396km of high voltage (220KV) line. Supply is projected to be 64MW, approximately equal to 532.68GWh in the scenario for year 2021. Feasibility studies, potentially detailed design and preparation of tender documents were done in 2013, the project is also part of the network analysis of NEL countries (2017), and a further study to refine the findings will soon be underway. The next stage of this project is resource mobilization & implementation, for which funding is sought in the NEL-IP.
Akanyaru Water Resources Development (MPP)
Akanyaru MPP (Burundi/Rwanda) consists of a 334 Mm3 dam, 12,400 ha of irrigated land, 14.5 MW electricity, potable water supply for 683,585 people and restoration of 1700km2 degraded watersheds. It is anticipated that the project would improve the living conditions and incomes of rural populations in the provinces of Kirundo, Ngozi and Kayanza in Burundi; and Huye and Gisagara Districts in Rwanda; and surrounding areas. Expected direct and indirect impacts include the creation of employment opportunities, water for domestic consumption, hydropower production, agricultural production, and livestock production. The outcomes of these benefits will enhance household incomes and livelihoods, environmental protection /watershed management, agricultural production to match the ever increasing human populations and market demand at regional level thereby improving both national and regional food & energy security, social economic development and ultimately poverty reduction. The project is a high national priority for Burundi. Planning has been done under the NELSAP action plan. Full feasibility, detailed design and preparation of tender documents, as well as independent ESIA and RAP studies are currently underway through NEPAD-IPPF and AWF in their 2019 Work Program.
The next phase of this project is construction, available estimates indicate a cost of ca. USD191m over a period of 3 years, although this number should be reviewed with results of the feasibility study.
Gogo Falls Water resources development (MPP)
Gogo Falls includes a 155 Mm3 dam, 20MW electricity, 30,000ha of irrigation, up to 86,400m3/d water supply, benefitting 1.152m people. Detailed feasibility and design studies have been done for this project and it now requires implementation, estimated at 393.7m USD over 3 years.
Mara valley Irrigation and WM Project (MPP)
This primarily irrigation project will benefit 20,000 people, irrigate 8,340Ha in 13 villages of Serengeti and Butiama Districts, 2.85MW, water supply to 18 villages in Serengeti, Butiama and Tarime Districts in Tanzania. According to the feasibility study (unavailable) this project will cost USD189.2m. The project needs detailed design and project implementation under this phase of NEL-IP.
Ngono MPP Water Resources Development Project (MPP)
This MPP project will benefit 30,000 people, provide 6,200Ha irrigation, 1.8MW of hydroelectric power, water supply to 23 villages in the Missenyi and Bukoba Districts on the western shores of Lake Victoria, Tanzania. Although it is suspected that a feasibility study has been done for this project, no further information was available at the time of writing this report. Indications are that the project will cost USD243m.
Parajok Water resources development project (MPP)
This MPP Water resources development project will result in a 520 Mm3 dam, 10MW electricity, 21,800ha of irrigation, and up to 36,000m3/d water supply and cost in the region of USD41.6m. A pre-feasibility study has been done and now requires a feasibility, ESIA & RAP, detailed design and project implementation.
Shared Angololo MPP Water Resources Development Project (MPP)
This MPP Water Resources Development Project has a command area of 3300ha, a dam capacity of 43Mm3, and will benefit 127,300 people. The dam site is located on River Malaba on the Kenyan-Uganda border partly in Mella Sub County of Tororo district, Eastern Uganda and partly in Teso district, Western Kenya. The dam will also provide water for irrigation, livestock watering and domestic use to the area and has a potential for hydropower development, reservoir fisheries development, recreation, flood control and/or drought mitigation and navigation. The dam has a significant risk due to its high storage capacity and there are some inhabitants downstream in the river valley. The spillway design discharge will be Q200. The proposed appropriate dam design shall be a composite dam; concrete gravity part on the right-hand side and rock-fill to the left hand.
Prefeasibility studies undertaken, Feasibility studies and design, Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and preparation of a Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) are completed.
Integrated Management of Transboundary Water Resources of Lakes Rweru, Cyohoha and the Akanyaru Marshlands (WM)
This project includes 4,200ha irrigated, 2.5 million agroforestry trees, 765ha riverbank and lake shore protection, 1 million beneficiaries including 4,500 fisher folks in Burundi/Rwanda
The project has a feasibility study and it is estimated that USD40m is required for pre-feasibility studies. Through GIZ support to NBI/NELSAP, the Germany Federal Ministry for for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUV) has provided grant for peatland studies to enable the NBI/NELSAP quantify the carbon sequestration capacities in the wetlands and come up with a proposal for green climate financing
Kagera Basin-wide Integrated Watershed Program (WM)
The overall objective of this watershed management project is to establish a sustainable cooperative framework for the joint management of the water resources of the Kagera River Basin; in order to prepare for sustainable development-oriented investments that will improve the living conditions of the people while protecting the environment. The Kagera River Basin Project contributes to the improvement of living conditions of the basin communities through social economic development, poverty reduction and reversal of environmental degradation. Numerous notable achievements and outputs within the basin already, and the NEL-IP request is for 60m USD to further assist with implementation including substantial welfare benefits to Kagera Basin including SWC on 300,000 ha, Irrigation on 65,000 ha, and building of rural roads up to 2,000 km.
Transboundary Watershed/Wetland Management Project (Sudan and Ethiopia) (WM)
No information was available at the time of writing this report. A budget of 3m USD has been included in this phase of the NEL-IP for studies to define the project better.
Semliki (HP)
This is a 72MW project in DR Congo/Uganda. Although it is suspected that a feasibility study has been done for this project, no further information was available at the time of writing this report. A budget of 6m USD has been included in this phase of the NEL-IP for studies to define the project better.
Integrated Fisheries and Water Resources Management of Jebel Aulia Dam & Renk - Malakal Area
The objective of this South Sudan/Sudan project is to increase the productivity of the fisheries sub-sector through promotion of sustainable management of fisheries, water resources, and the ecosystems surrounding the Jebel Aulia Dam. This will also enhance pro-poor macroeconomic growth for poverty and food insecurity reduction. The Project will result in:
• Establishment of a knowledge base to enable a good, science-based, understanding of the situation of fisheries in the Jebel Aulia Reservoir
• Development the Reservoir/Lake Management Plan
• Fisheries Management Plan
• Integrated Capacity Building and Stakeholders’ participation Plans
• Scoping of investments (project profiles) to facilitate decision making by both the public and private sector
• A joint fisheries and water management framework put in place, and
• Pilot identified project profiles implemented.
The project has been conceptualized in a concept note dated February 2018 and it is estimated that 12m USD is required in this phase of the NEL-IP for studies to define the project better.
Kitoba-Lubango Water Resources Project (Irrigation)
The objective of this project is to irrigate 3,000 ha for 4,286 farmers in the Lubera territory, Goma district, North Kivu province of the DR Congo. A pre-feasibility study has been done and it is expected that this national priority project will cost USD21.1m. Feasibility, ESIA, and detailed design is required and has been allocated 3m USD in NEL-IP.
Milestones
Complete funding for NEL-IP project and programmatic implementation is unlikely to be immediately available, for all aspects of the program. NEL-IP will therefore be implemented in phases, with the scope of activities in each phase determined according to the available financial resources. Activities and timelines and will be reviewed as and when different components of NEL-IP come online.
Technical Information
The context of the technical analysis is taken from the overall goal of the NEL-IP which is “to optimize and implement a NEL sub-basin water, energy and food security program that will boost NEL member countries’ economic growths, improve rural livelihoods and reduce poverty levels and safeguard the Nile River ecosystems”. Key elements of this goal for the technical analysis include:
a) Bringing together NEL member countries sector ministries and NBI/NELSAP CU to design, structure and implement the program
b) Implement in-country/trans-boundary, multipurpose infrastructure projects including fisheries production, irrigation development/expansion, interconnection power lines and watershed management
c) Implement rural livelihoods improvement projects such as agricultural products, value addition, eco-tourism and market access
d) Develop a basin-wide framework and tools to map and monitor cumulative impacts of the implemented investments on the basin water and land resources.
Identification of available options and data collection
A list of 126 projects provided the point of departure for the development of the NEL-IP. The best available data from readily available sources has been collated and captured for these projects. In some instances, feasibility studies exist, however for most of the projects, information is scarce and often derived from preliminary desktop estimates. Data has been gleaned wherever possible from previous studies such as the NELSAP-CU (2019), AURECON (2012) and the Multi Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis (2012). Several of the projects prioritized for the NEL-IP have their origins in the MSIOA (2012) study. The aim of the MSIOA was to make a preliminary identification of regionally significant investment opportunities linked in some way to the water sector. This was achieved through a detailed examination of each of the development sectors and a consideration of potential multipurpose projects.
Despite an intensive process to gather relevant information, and infilling with best estimates wherever possible, as well as ongoing consultations with in-country representatives, some gaps do remain in the data.
Regional screening criteria and scoring
At the NEL-IP’s 2nd regional workshop in Nairobi on 21 November 2019, a decision was made to abandon the original pre-screened twenty-six (26) projects that are detailed in NELSAP-CU (2019), mostly because the selection process appeared overly beneficial to projects in the water resources sector. Improved selection criteria (Table 1) were developed and applied to the original long list of 128 projects for the NEL-IP screening process. These selection criteria have been reviewed, tweaked and enhanced during the technical analysis so that they represent the desired result of project selection that meets the NEL-IP objectives. The required data to give meaningful effect to criteria 7 (impact on water resources) and criteria 12 (calculation of return on investment) were not adequate at the preliminary selection stage since many projects are still in their infancy and at the conceptual/selection stage. It is envisaged that these criteria could be applied at a later stage as the projects evolve and data for projects become more developed. Furthermore, when criteria 3 (number of beneficiaries) and criteria 9 (improved water supply) were applied together (both measured as number of people), it quickly became apparent that these two criteria are a duplication and resulted in an unfair elevation of their final score and advancement of the relevant projects. Consequently, criteria 9 was omitted from the preliminary prioritization scoring process.
Project prioritization tool
To support the selection process, a project prioritization tool that utilizes the screening criteria in a decision support environment has been developed in Excel. The Tool sums the weighted scores for each criteria using the weighting assigned, to determine an initial prioritization, for all 128 projects.
However, several of the criteria that are used are of incomparable dimensions. For example, the score for criteria 3 (enhanced livelihoods) can be any number of people (sometimes millions), while the score for criteria 4 (national priority) is either 0 or 1. This could result in some criteria having an unfair and disproportionate impact on the final prioritization. To reduce this impact, a simple normalization has been applied as a means of adjusting values measured on different scales to a theoretically common scale.
The summed normalized score for each project is then ranked from highest to lowest, and consequently those projects with a higher score have the highest priority, based on the agreed criteria.
Assessment of Country needs and consultation process
An in-country consultation process was conducted in February/March 2020 where the 9 member countries were visited (Annexure 1) to review the long list of projects, specifically those that are within their area of interest (Table 2). The consultations entailed visits to team members and country focal points at key Ministries to present and verify the criteria, the selection methodology, and then support the Ministries to populate the information required in the screening tool for the prioritization of their countries projects. The prioritization Tool was used to guide and focus discussions regarding the respective country needs and priorities, and how these are represented in individual projects. In many instances it was necessary for the countries to hold additional internal discussions with their colleagues, or other Ministries on aspects of their projects. To facilitate this process, a simplified questionnaire (Annexure 2) was developed and used by staff in the field to infill missing data. During the consultations and follow up discussions and review process, 7 projects were removed from NEL-IP, mostly because they had successfully procured funding for implementation or their priority had diminished, and 3 projects were added (as detailed in Table 3) , with the long list now totaling 124 (from the original 128).
Preliminary prioritization of all projects
The preliminary prioritization of projects now totaled 124 with a priority classification that largely adhered to the NEL-IP goals and objectives.
Development of scenarios
To add an additional level of prioritization, scenarios were developed based on the agreed criteria in Table 4, with each project being allocated to a scenario.
Refinement of project prioritization and final selection
It is evident from the results of the project prioritization analysis presented in Tables 5 and 6 that the food security scenario is the front-runner with the highest priority score of 1498 (priority column in Table 6). The food security scenario has a total of 16 projects with all countries equitably represented (3 projects each), however only 6 of 10 sectors are represented as follows: Multi-Purpose Projects (6 projects), Transmission Line (5), Watershed Management (2), Hydropower (1), Fisheries (1), Irrigation (1). Water and Sanitation, Sanitation, Environment and Navigation are not represented. In an attempt to improve the sector representation in a credible manner, the single highest scoring projects from the 4 non-represented sectors were considered for inclusion as follows:
a) Environmental: Eco-tourism Project on Lake Edward (individual score = 66)
b) Water Supply: Water Supply Project for 18 Villages in Borenga Area including Nyangoto and Kewanja (individual score = 80)
c) Navigation: Rehabilitation of the navigation route from Khartoum to Juba (White Nile + Bahr El Gebel (individual score = 93)
d) Sanitation: Unfortunately, there are only 3 sanitation projects all with such low individual scores (36 and less), that it would not be realistic to motivate for any of them to be included.
Furthermore, to maintain the number of projects within the manageable guideline of 15 projects, projects from the most represented sectors (Multi-Purpose Projects and Transmission Line) with the lowest individual priority scores were considered for exclusion, as follows:
a) Shared Angololo MPP Water Resources Development Project (individual score = 49)
b) Parajok MPP Water resources development project (individual score = 105)
c) Ethiopia - Sudan TL Project (individual score = 63)
d) Uganda -D.R. Congo TL (individual score = 82)
This approach initially appears to be feasible until one considers that applying the above refinements would rectify the sector representation but upset the country balance of 3 projects per country. Furthermore, the risk of replacing higher prioritized projects with lower prioritized ones is a real one. Using this same line of investigation, several permutations of projects have been considered in an attempt to satisfy all (or as many as possible) of the selection criteria. However, there is always a trade-off between different projects that meet different criteria in different ways.
The answer to this dilemma lies in consideration of the relative weightings of the two criteria, viz. country and sector representation, weighted at 1.0 and 0.5 (from Table 1) respectively. Country representation is clearly a higher priority than sector representation. It would be difficult to motivate for the legitimate inclusion of projects with extremely low individual scores instead of projects with higher individual scores. For these reasons, the food security scenario with its perfectly balanced country representation of each country being represented 3 times is selected as the point of departure for further consideration in the NEL-IP. It is envisaged that the projects that are not part of the selection for this first phase of NEL-IP, could be better constituted and thereby obtain improved scores and prioritization in future phases of the NEL-IP. The 16 priority projects of the Food Security scenario are listed in Table 7. Interestingly, 9 of the 16 projects were in the original pre-screened 26 projects in NELSAP-CU (2019). The other 7 projects are mostly Transmission Line projects, a sector that was poorly represented in the original 26 projects.
Preparation of Project Profiles
In consultation with the NEL-IP team, a project profile template was developed to specifically summarize project information that is relevant to the development of the NEL-IP Program, and also largely meets the requirements of potential future development partners. Available information and reports for the 16 selected projects has been assimilated, reviewed and included in a project profile for each project (contained in Annexure 3). Project profiles have been enhanced with information from individual discussions with team members, during in country consultations and in some instances with the consultants who wrote the supporting study reports. The project profiles have been further reviewed and verified by NELSAP and country representatives.